If you listen closely to what’s
happening in the world today, you’ll
notice something extraordinary. The
United States has officially lost the
strategic advantage it enjoyed for
nearly eight decades. And China, through
a combination of economic power,
industrial might, and long-term
planning, has now taken the lead. This
isn’t about predictions anymore. It’s
not about what might happen. It’s what
has already happened, and Washington
can’t reverse it. For most of my career,
I’ve argued that the rise of China would
fundamentally challenge American
hegemony. When I first began making this
argument in the early 2000s, many people
dismissed it. They said China would slow
down. They said the US would maintain
dominance. They said the world would
never shift away from American
leadership. But today, the evidence is
overwhelming. China is no longer
catching up. China is overtaking. In
international politics, timing is
everything. And China has reached the
point I call the critical mass of power.
The moment when a rising state stops
being a challenger and starts becoming a
peer competitor. This is the moment
where economic power converges with
military capability. Industrial
dominance becomes global leverage.
Diplomacy shifts in favor of the rising
power and the existing superpower loses
the ability to dictate outcomes. This is
exactly what’s happening today. China
isn’t rising anymore. China has risen
and America can’t stop this trajectory.
Let’s break down how China pulled this
off because it wasn’t accidental. China
built the world’s largest manufacturing
base, a technologically advanced
military designed to counter the US, the
biggest trading network in human
history, and a global diplomatic
presence that rivals Washington. This
wasn’t done in 5 years. It was done over
for decades slowly, quietly,
methodically. And while China was
building, the United States was
distracted.
Fighting costly wars in the Middle East,
offshoring its industrial backbone, and
assuming China would play by American
rules. It was a colossal miscalculation.
Here’s the uncomfortable truth. You
can’t stop a great power once it reaches
this level of capability. Washington can
impose sanctions. It can build
alliances. It can restrict technology.
It can increase military presence in the
Pacific. But none of this changes the
structural reality. China has too much
economic weight. Too much industrial
capacity and too much strategic
momentum. The United States is no longer
in the driver’s seat. It’s reacting, not
shaping. In part two, I’m going to walk
you through the exact mechanism step by
step that allowed China to quietly
surpass the United States. We’ll look at
the industrial tipping point, the
military balance shift, and the
diplomatic realignments happening right
now across Asia, the Middle East, and
beyond. Because once you understand
these shifts, you’ll see why America’s
ability to contain China has collapsed
permanently. When I look at today’s
international system, the most important
fact is this. The United States no
longer has the structural leverage it
enjoyed for 75 years. For decades,
American policymakers could punish,
pressure, or isolate almost any country
on Earth. They could weaponize finance,
restrict technology, or rally alliances
to contain rivals. And almost always, it
worked. But around 2017, maybe earlier,
something shifted. China reached a level
of economic and technological
development that fundamentally changed
the balance of power. And here’s the
uncomfortable truth I’ve been saying for
years. The United States can no longer
contain China. The window has closed.
Let me explain exactly why. One, the
economic tipping point for most of
modern history. Power followed wealth.
The country with the biggest economy
holds the cards. and China now leads the
world in manufacturing output industrial
capacity infrastructure scale electric
vehicle production high-speed rail
network say Id driven industrial
logistics in some sectors Beijing isn’t
just ahead it’s in a different universe
people ask me John when did the US lose
the ability to slow China down my answer
is simple the day China built an
industrial machine the US could no
longer match even if it tried Because
once a country becomes the world’s
largest manufacturer by far, sanctions
don’t heard it the way they used to.
Restrictions don’t stop it. Threats
don’t frighten it. China now produces
more steel than the rest of the world
combined. It builds more ships every
year than the US builds in a decade. It
graduates more engineers than America
graduate students. You cannot contain a
country that manufactures the future to
the global south. Pivot. Another crucial
point. The global south stopped
listening to Washington. This is
something few Americans realize, but
it’s one of the most important
geopolitical shifts since the Cold War.
Countries across Asia, Africa, Latin
America, and the Middle East looked at
China and saw financing with no
political conditions infrastructure
instead of lectures. trade instead of
punishment technology instead of
interference. And suddenly the US found
itself isolated in regions it used to
dominate. I’ve spoken with diplomats
across the world who quietly say the era
of American pressure is over. We have
options now. That’s the power of a
rising China. Three. The myth of
American technological superiority.
Washington elites continue repeating the
same comforting phrase. We are still
ahead in technology. But let me tell you
something uncomfortable. That gap is
shrinking so fast that in some areas
it’s gone. Take five grams, six grams,
quantum communications, AI
infrastructure, battery technology,
green energy, and ship building
automation. China is not catching up. It
is leading. The United States still
dominates in some high-end sectors like
advanced semiconductors, but even that
lead is fragile. Once China’s domestic
semiconductor ecosystem matures, and it
will the last major American lever
disappears, and I’ve been warning
policymakers for years, you cannot
prevent a nation of 1.4
billion people with enormous talent and
industrial discipline from developing
advanced technology. You can only slow
it temporarily. That temporary moment is
ending. And the United States knows it.
For the strategic geography problem,
there’s another issue almost nobody
discusses. The United States must
project power across an ocean. China
projects power inside its own region.
America is playing an away game. China
is playing a home game. and in great
power competition. The home team has the
advantage, the distance, the logistics,
the supply lines. All of it creates a
structural imbalance the US can never
truly overcome. The Pentagon knows this.
The Navy knows this. Every serious
strategic planner knows this. This is
why I say China didn’t win because it
was aggressive. China won because it had
geography, industry, and time on its
side. Five, the realization inside
Washington. And now something very
significant is happening. People inside
the US establishment are quietly
admitting the truth. They won’t say it
publicly, not yet. But behind closed
doors, they are acknowledging
containment is no longer viable.
Sanctions don’t work. Military dominance
is fading. The alliance network is less
reliable. The economic gap cannot be
reversed. This realization is what I
call the strategic panic phase. It’s the
moment a superpower recognizes it cannot
dictate outcomes the way it used to. And
from this panic comes risk big risk.
Because historically, when a declining
power confronts a rising power, conflict
becomes more likely. We’re entering
dangerous territory. Now that we’ve
established when the United States began
losing leverage, let’s move to the
critical question. What exactly did
China do that pushed it permanently
ahead? There are three strategic moves,
big moves that the United States cannot
reverse, no matter how much pressure,
sanctions, or alliances it deploys.
Let’s break them down. Move one, China
built the world’s first self-sufficient
mega economy. When I say
self-sufficient, I don’t mean
emotionally or symbolically.
I mean industrially, technologically,
financially, and strategically
self-sufficient on a scale humanity has
never seen. China now has the largest
manufacturing base in history, the
largest consumer market in history, the
largest industrial workforce in history,
the deepest global supply chains in
history, the biggest energy
transformation
systems ever built. This is the key
point. The United States cannot cut
China off from the world because China
is the world’s industrial core. Before,
Washington could pressure countries by
limiting access to the American market.
But today, losing access to China is far
more damaging for most governments and
companies. The US simply doesn’t have
the leverage anymore. China achieved
something I’ve been warning about for 20
years. It built an economic ecosystem
too big to isolate and too advance too
slow. This alone changed the entire
international order. Move to China
created parallel global systems. The US
cannot shut down for decades. The US
dominated the world not just through
power but through systems. The swift
banking network. The US dollar American
credit institutions. Silicon Valley
technology.
Western controlled global shipping
rules. US-led security alliances. China
studied all of that and built
alternatives. Today, China has CIPS, the
alternative to Swift, the digital U on
the alternative payment reserve system.
Brie ports, the alternative shipping
network, Huawei Telecom infrastructure,
the alternative digital backbone Asian
financial institutions alternatives to
the IMF and World Bank long-term
commodity contracts alternatives to
dollar dependence. This is why
Washington’s old playbook no longer
works. If America sanctions, China
rroots. If America blocks, China builds
its own version. If America threatens,
other countries now have choices. For
the first time in modern history, you
have a parallel global architecture that
is outside US control. And once those
systems exist, they don’t go away. This
was a brilliant long-term move from
Beijing 1. the US never expected and
cannot undo. Move three, China
integrated itself into the global south
more deeply than the US ever did. This
is the most underestimated shift in 21st
century geopolitics. China didn’t just
trade with the global south. It embedded
itself into their development through
brie rail networks, ports, mining
partnerships, energy projects, and
industrial cooperation. Beijing created
long-term dependencies. Now look at how
this changes global power. If Latin
America wants infrastructure, they call
China. If Africa wants
industrialization, they call China. If
the Middle East wants technology, they
call China. If Southeast Asia wants
trade, they call China. In every region
that matters, China is the new
heavyweight. And here’s the part
American policy makers hate hearing.
Most of these countries trust China more
than they trust the US. Not because
China is perfect, far from it, but
because China delivers infrastructure
instead of ideology, partnership instead
of pressure, deals instead of demands.
The result, Washington lost influence
across the non-western world, and it’s
not coming back. Why America can’t
counter these moves? I’ve spent my
entire career studying great power
transitions. And the US is facing a
situation no declining power ever wants
to face. China has built a bigger
economy, a bigger industrial base, a
broader global network, a deeper
technological ecosystem and parallel
institutions immune to American
leverage. There is no policy, not
sanctions, not alliances, not military
presence that can reverse these
structural realities. This is why I say
very bluntly, America can’t stop this
anymore. The race is already decided.
The US can respond. It can compete. It
can adjust, but it cannot restore its
old position of dominance over China.
That chapter of history is closed. Let’s
bring everything together. I’ve spent
decades studying great power politics.
And when a rising power overtakes an
established one, the world never stays
the same. It doesn’t happen quietly. It
doesn’t happen peacefully. And it
doesn’t happen without consequences for
everyone involved. Now that China has
taken the lead in key areas, two major
questions define the future. One, what
kind of world is China building? Two,
how will the United States react to
losing its dominant position? Let’s
tackle both. one WHA China leed world
actually looks like. Many people wrongly
assume a China world means Beijing
ruling everything with an iron fist.
That’s not how real international
politics works. Great powers shape
systems indirectly through influence,
standards, economics, technology, and
networks. Not by micromanaging the
globe. Here’s what a china centric world
will realistically look like. A trade
routes will flow through Asia for the
first time in modern history. The
economic center of gravity shifts away
from the Atlantic and firmly into the
Asian sphere. The belt and road network
already connects 150 plus countries.
75% of global population, 65% of world
GDP potential ports, rails, digital
highways, energy pipelines, all centered
on China. If you want to trade, ship,
move goods, or build infrastructure in
the 21st century, you will inevitably
move through China’s system. This is
what power looks like. B technology
standards will be written in Beijing,
not Washington. American companies shape
the digital world from 1992 2020. But
the next era AI governance, six grams,
drone rules, quantum encryption, global
payments will increasingly reflect
Chinese standards. countries will adopt
Chinese telecom architecture, Chinese
cyber security frameworks, Chinese AI
guidelines, Chinese digital currency
protocols, and once a nation adopts a
foreign standard, they stay locked into
that ecosystem for decades. This is how
China extends influence without firing a
shot. See, the global south will align
economically with China. Countries in
Africa, Asia, the Middle East, and Latin
America now see China as their primary
development partner. And that’s not just
about money. It’s about future
alignment. When nations rely on Beijing
for railways, ports, satellites, energy
projects, manufacturing zones, they
inevitably lean toward Beijing’s
worldview. This gradually forms a China
centered global majority. Not a military
alliance, not a dictatorship, but a
gravitational pull powerful and
irreversible to how the United States
will respond. This is where things get
dangerous. A declining superpower does
not simply accept its fate. It resists.
It pushes back. It attempts to slow the
rise of its rival even when the outcome
is already determined. This is straight
from the realist playbook. Here’s how
the US is likely to respond. A
Washington will double down on coalition
building. You’ll see more diplomatic
pressure, defense packs, intelligence
alliances, regional military
collaborations. But the problem is
structural. America’s allies depend on
China economically more than they depend
on the US militarily. Europe trades more
with China. Asia trades far more with
China. Even US partners in the middle.
East rely on China for technology and
energy. This makes Washington’s
alliances limited in power. Be the US
will increase military presence in the
Indo-Pacific. More bases, more naval
deployments, more joint drills, more
security cooperation with Japan, South
Korea, Australia, the Philippines, and
India. But geography cannot be defeated.
China is operating in its backyard. The
United States is operating from across
an ocean. The logistics imbalance is
baked into the system. The US can’t
change geography. C expect more
technological restrictions, but they
will have diminishing returns. American
leadership will continue restricting
chips, AI transfers, telecom components,
dual use technologies. But here’s the
reality. China is now too advanced to be
stopped. Restrictions slow China down
for a moment. But they cannot prevent
China from eventually building its own
version. Washington knows this, but it
has no other tools left. D. The most
dangerous possibility. Miscalculation.
Declining powers often take risks they
would never take when confident. This is
why the USChina relationship is entering
the most volatile period since the Cold
War. All it takes is a misunderstanding
at sea, an incident over Taiwan, a clash
in the South China Sea, or a sudden
political shift, and we could see a
crisis spiral out of control. Great
power transitions are rarely peaceful.
The US won’t go quietly. China won’t
step back. This creates a structural
collision. Let me be blunt. In pure
realist fashion, America can’t stop
China anymore. The structural forces are
simply too strong. You can’t reverse
demographics. You can’t reverse
industrial dominance. You can’t reverse
geography. You can’t reverse global
economic gravity. China rose. America
hesitated. And the world moved on. Now
we enter a new era. Not American, not
Chinesecontrolled, but defined by
competition between the two most
powerful states in human history. The
stakes are enormous. The outcome will
shape the century and both nations will
fight economically and strategically for
their vision of the future. If you want
to understand the next 50 years, watch
this story unfold not through ideology,
not through emotion, but through the
cold logic of power politics. Because in
the end, the world doesn’t follow who
talks the loudest. It follows who builds
the most. And right now, China is
building at a scale the United States
cannot match. That’s the new reality.
