Singapor Spitzendiplomat Kishore Mahbubani sagt seine Meinung über Europa und sein Verhältnis zur Welt… Sie ist vernichtend! Wir müssen unsere Stratgie völlig ändern… Mit deutschen Untertiteln
Singapore’s Top Diplomat Reveals TRUTH About Ukraine and Future of Europe
Geopolitik ist ein sehr grausames Geschäft – und wer naiv und schlicht in seiner geopolitischen Analyse ist, leidet immer darunter. Zugleich sind einige Regeln der Geopolitik sehr klar: Alle Großmächte – einschließlich der Vereinigten Staaten – stellen immer ihre eigenen Interessen an erste Stelle. Sie werden ihre Interessen niemals für selbst die besten Freunde opfern, auch nicht für ihre europäischen Freunde. Es war sehr naiv von den Europäern zu glauben, dass die USA immer die europäischen Interessen – etwa im Umgang mit Russland – an erste Stelle setzen würden.
Das ist Kishore Mahbubani – einer der angesehensten geopolitischen Experten der Welt, ehemaliger Präsident des UN-Sicherheitsrats und Senior Fellow am Asia Research Institute. Professor Mahbubani ist Autor mehrerer Bücher, darunter Living in the Asian Century und das bahnbrechende Werk Has China Won? über Chinas wachsenden Einfluss auf der Weltbühne.
In diesem Interview sprechen Kishore und ich über die Rolle Europas bei den Verhandlungen zur Beendigung des Ukrainekriegs. Angesichts zunehmender Spannungen finden sich europäische Führungspersönlichkeiten immer mehr am Rand des Geschehens wieder – ohne klare Stimme zwischen den USA und Russland.
Professor Mahbubani hat kürzlich in der Zeitschrift Foreign Policy einen Artikel mit dem Titel „Es ist Zeit für Europa, das Undenkbare zu tun“ veröffentlicht. In diesem Gespräch gehen wir auf drei Optionen für Europas Zukunft ein – und darauf, wie der Krieg in der Ukraine tatsächlich beendet werden kann.
Später richten wir den Fokus auf China. Ich frage Professor Mahbubani als Singapurer nach seiner Einschätzung zu Chinas wachsendem Einfluss weltweit – insbesondere in den Bereichen Künstliche Intelligenz und erneuerbare Energien. Ich stelle ihm direkt die Frage: Hat China gewonnen?
Zum Abschluss diskutieren wir das wohl gefährlichste geopolitische Thema überhaupt: die Zukunft Taiwans – aus der Sicht von Professor Mahbubani.
Vertrau mir: Du willst keine Minute dieses Gesprächs verpassen. Und sieh dir das Video unbedingt bis zum Ende an, denn dort enthüllt Professor Mahbubani seine ganz konkrete Strategie, wie westliche Länder mit China umgehen sollten.
Warum der Ukrainekrieg vermeidbar war
Meine Damen und Herren, es ist mir eine große Ehre, Professor Kishore Mahbubani heute im Studio begrüßen zu dürfen. – Vielen Dank, dass Sie heute bei uns sind.
Mahbubani: Mein Vergnügen. Danke, dass ich hier sein darf.
– Professor Mahbubani, ich möchte mit dem größten geopolitischen Konflikt unserer Zeit beginnen: dem Krieg zwischen Russland und der Ukraine. Es gibt viele Debatten darüber, was diesen Krieg ausgelöst hat – manche sagen, es war die NATO-Erweiterung, andere nennen Putin. Aber Sie haben kürzlich einen sehr interessanten Kommentar gemacht: Sie sagten, das Fehlen von Pragmatismus in der europäischen Kultur sei ein großer Faktor. Können Sie das bitte näher erläutern?
Mahbubani: Ja, die Tragödie des Ukrainekriegs ist, dass dieser Krieg völlig vermeidbar war. Er war ein Unfall, der nicht hätte passieren müssen. Und der Grund, warum er dennoch passiert ist, liegt darin, dass die Europäer geopolitisch inkompetent geworden sind.
Ich sage das mit gewisser Sicherheit, denn derjenige, der mir diesen Einblick gab, war Henry Kissinger. Ich hatte ein Einzelgespräch mit ihm, etwa ein Jahr vor seinem Tod im Oktober 2022. Er beklagte, dass die europäischen Führer nicht mehr im großen Maßstab und langfristig denken – dass sie den Gesamtzusammenhang nicht mehr einbeziehen, bevor sie politische Entscheidungen treffen.
Zum Beispiel möchte ich eines ganz klar betonen, damit es keinen Zweifel gibt: Die russische Invasion der Ukraine ist illegal. Nichts kann diese Invasion rechtfertigen. Ganz klar.
Aber gleichzeitig hätte diese Invasion verhindert werden können – wenn die Europäer irgendeine Form von geopolitischer Kompetenz gezeigt hätten. Wenn sie anerkannt hätten, dass sie mit Russland die nächsten 100, vielleicht 1.000 Jahre leben müssen, hätten sie vielleicht Russlands Sicherheitsbedenken ernst nehmen sollen. Besonders dann, wenn Russland sich durch bestimmte Entwicklungen bedroht fühlt.
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Einleitung zu Kishore Mahbubani
Geopolitik ist ein sehr grausames Geschäft. Menschen, die in ihrer Analyse der Geopolitik naiv und vereinfachend sind, leiden immer. Und doch sind einige Regeln der Geopolitik auch sehr klar: Alle Großmächte – einschließlich der Vereinigten Staaten – stellen immer ihre eigenen Interessen an erste Stelle. Sie werden niemals ihre eigenen Interessen selbst für die besten Freunde – einschließlich ihrer europäischen Freunde – opfern. Es war sehr naiv von den Europäern zu glauben, dass die USA beispielsweise im Umgang mit Russland immer europäische Interessen voranstellen würden.
Das ist Kishore Mahbubani. Er ist einer der profiliertesten geopolitischen Experten der Welt, ehemaliger Präsident des Sicherheitsrats der Vereinten Nationen und Distinguished Fellow am Asia Research Institute. Professor Mahbubani ist Autor mehrerer Bücher, darunter Living in the Asian Century und sein bahnbrechendes Werk über Chinas wachsenden Einfluss in der Welt mit dem Titel Has China Won?
In dem heutigen Interview sprechen Kishore und ich über die Rolle Europas bei den Verhandlungen zur Beendigung des Ukraine-Krieges. Während sich die Spannungen verschärfen, finden sich die europäischen Führer zunehmend an den Rand gedrängt, ohne klare Stimme in den Gesprächen zwischen den USA und Russland. Professor Mahbubani hat kürzlich einen Artikel im Magazin Foreign Policy veröffentlicht, mit dem Titel It’s Time for Europe to Do the Unthinkable – „Es ist Zeit für Europa, das Undenkbare zu tun“.
In diesem Video diskutieren wir die drei Optionen, die Europa für die Zukunft hat, und wie der Ukrainekrieg effektiv beendet werden kann. Später im Interview wechseln wir den Fokus nach China, und ich bitte den Professor als Singapurer um seine Einschätzung, wie China seinen weltweiten Einfluss ausbaut. Wir sprechen über Chinas jüngste Fortschritte in KI und erneuerbaren Energien, und ich stelle ihm ganz direkt die Frage: Hat China gewonnen?
Abschließend debattieren wir über das gefährlichste geopolitische Thema der Welt – das aus Sicht von Professor Mahbubani die Zukunft Taiwans ist. Glaub mir: Du willst jede Minute dieses Gesprächs hören – und bleib unbedingt bis zum Ende dabei, wenn Professor Mahbubani seine genaue Strategie verrät, wie westliche Länder mit China umgehen sollten.
Warum der Ukraine-Krieg vermeidbar war
Meine Damen und Herren, es ist mir eine große Ehre, heute Professor Kishore Mahbubani im Studio begrüßen zu dürfen. Kishore, vielen Dank, dass Sie heute hier sind – wir freuen uns sehr auf dieses Gespräch.
Mahbubani: Es ist mir eine Freude, danke für die Einladung.
Moderator: Professor Mahbubani, ich möchte mit dem derzeit größten geopolitischen Konflikt beginnen – dem Russland-Ukraine-Krieg. Wir könnten sicherlich lange darüber diskutieren, was diesen Krieg ausgelöst hat. Viele sagen: NATO-Erweiterung, andere sagen: Putin. Aber Sie haben kürzlich eine sehr interessante Aussage gemacht, nämlich dass das Fehlen von Pragmatismus in der europäischen Kultur ein wesentlicher Faktor sei. Können Sie das etwas näher erläutern?
Mahbubani: Ja, die Tragödie des Ukraine-Krieges besteht darin, dass dieser Krieg absolut vermeidbar war. Er war ein Unfall, der nicht hätte passieren müssen. Der Grund, warum er dennoch ausbrach, ist, dass die Europäer geopolitisch inkompetent geworden sind.
Ich sage das mit gewissem Selbstbewusstsein, weil mir dieser Gedanke von niemand Geringerem als Henry Kissinger vermittelt wurde. Ich hatte etwa ein Jahr vor seinem Tod im Oktober 2022 ein persönliches Gespräch mit ihm. Er beklagte, dass europäische Führer nicht mehr im großen Maßstab denken, nicht langfristig planen und das Gesamtbild nicht betrachten, bevor sie politische Entscheidungen treffen.
Ich möchte eines ganz klarstellen, um Missverständnisse zu vermeiden: Der russische Einmarsch in die Ukraine ist illegal. Nichts kann diese Invasion rechtfertigen. Punkt.
Aber gleichzeitig hätte diese Invasion verhindert werden können, wenn die Europäer irgendeine Form von geopolitischer Kompetenz gezeigt und anerkannt hätten, dass sie mit Russland noch 100, vielleicht 1.000 Jahre zusammenleben müssen. Vielleicht hätten sie dann Russlands Sicherheitsbedenken in Betracht ziehen sollen – insbesondere wenn Russland sich durch bestimmte Schritte bedroht fühlt.
Die Russen haben sehr deutlich gemacht, dass die fortgesetzte Osterweiterung der NATO ihre Sicherheit gefährdet. Sie haben viele Warnungen gegeben. Amerikanische Wissenschaftler wie John Mearsheimer und Jeffrey Sachs haben zahlreiche Belege dafür geliefert, dass diese Warnungen sehr klar waren.
Es ist daher äußerst verwunderlich, dass die europäischen Führer diese Warnungen ignoriert haben und weiterhin auf die Erweiterung der NATO gedrängt haben.
Hier ist der Englische Text:
Intro to Kishore Mahbubani
see geopolitics is a very cruel business and people who are naive and simplistic
in their analysis of geopolitics always suffer and yet at the same time some of
the rules of geopolitics are also very clear all great Powers including the United States will always put its own
interest first he will never sacrifice his interest for even the best of friends including his European friends
it was very naive for the Europeans to believe that the United States would always put European interest first in
say IND dealing with Russia this is Kor maani he is one of the most accomplished geopolitical experts in the world the
former president of the United Nations security Council and a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research Institute
Professor mapani is the author of several books including living in the Asian century and his groundbreaking
book about China’s growing influence in the world entitled has China won in
today’s interview Kor and I dive into the European role in the negotiations surrounding the end of the war in
Ukraine as tensions rise European leaders find themselves sidelined with no clear voice in the negotiations
between the US and Russia Professor maani recently authored an article for foreign policy entitled it’s time for
Europe to do the unthinkable and in today’s video we go through Europe’s three options for the future and how the
war in Ukraine can effectively end later in our interview we shift Focus to China and I asked the professor to share his
thoughts as a Singaporean on how China is increasing its influence throughout the world we discussed China’s latest
developments in Ai and renewable energy and I bluntly asked the professor the same question of his book title has
China won finally we end our discussion debating the most dangerous issue in the world which in Professor M bui’s opinion
is the future of Taiwan trust me you’ll want to hear every minute of today’s conversation and make sure you watch to
the end as Professor mapani Reveals His exact strategy on how Western countries should handle China let’s begin well
Why the Ukraine War Was Preventable
ladies and gentlemen it is a great honor to welcome into the studio professor k maani um Kure thank you so much for
joining us today and we’re look so forward to this discussion my pleasure thanks for having me absolutely um
Professor maani I want to start off um you know discussing the biggest geopolitical conflict that’s in the
world right now of course the Russia Ukraine war and I’m sure that we could have a very long discussion on what
triggered this war a lot of people saying it’s NATO expansion it’s you know Putin but I you recently had a very
interesting comment that said that the absence of pragmatism in European culture is a big factor I’d like you to
explain a little bit more about that yes I mean the the tragedy about the Ukraine War uh is that this war was uh eminently
preventable it was uh it was an accident that need not have happened and the
reason why it happened is because the Europeans have become geopolitically
incompetent and I say this with some confidence because the person who gave
me this Insight was was Henry Kissinger I had a one-on-one conversation with him
uh about a year before he passed away in October 2022 and he was lamenting the fact that the European leaders are no
longer thinking big picture long-term and looking at the uh overall uh
environment before arriving making political judgments so for example you know I want to emphasize one fact to so
that there’s no misunderstanding the Russian invasion of Ukraine is illegal nothing can justify that invasion very
clear right but at the same time that Invasion could have been prevented if
the Europeans had shown any kind of geopolitical competence and acknowledge
that since they have to live with Russia over the next 100 maybe a thousand years
maybe they should take into consideration Russia’s security concerns and and especially if Russia feels
threatened by some moves that they’re making and the Russians made it abundantly clear that the continuous
Why Did Europe Push for NATO Expansion?
eastwards expension of NATO was endangering their security and they gave all kinds of warning signs and you know
American Scholars like John mimer and Jeff sax have actually provided a lot of
data that shows that These Warnings were very very clear and it’s very puzzling
that the European leaders chose to ignore these warnings and continue to push for the expansion uh of NATO and
and I think of course right now as you know the Europeans are paying a very heavy price price for their geopolitical
incompetence because the one lesson of history and this goes back 2,000 years
Europe’s Biggest Mistake
never put all your geopolitical eggs in one basket and the Europeans put all their geopolitical eggs in one basket
called the United States of America on the assumption that the United States of America would always you know in one way
or another protect European interests even by sacrificing American interest
that was an absurd geopolitical assumption because all all great power will always put their interests first so
in a sense whatever Donald Trump is doing now is behaving like a logical great power leader whereas the Europeans
have been behaving as incompetent leaders by not considering worst case
options when they enthusiastically supported the expansion of NATO yeah
that’s a very good insight there um so do you think with you know Donald Trump’s pivot now and really you know
Why the US Will Sacrifice Europe
changing 180 degrees from from the previous administration h would you just say that that is more him acting in the
United States best interest and act like you said acting like a superpower is so this is really come to be expected this
Donald Trump’s move well and uh unfortunately you see geopolitics is a
very cruel business and people who are naive and simplistic in their analysis
of geopolitics always suffer and yet at the same time some of the rules of
geopolitics are also very clear all great Powers including the United States will always put its own interest first
right he will never sacrifice his interest for even the best of friends including his European friends it was
very naive for the Europeans to believe that the United States would always put European interests first in say in
dealing with Russia why should the United States do that the United States has got his own interest and the United
States is now trying to work out a new relationship with Russia and this could have been anticipated uh some time ago
and so I think it’s important for the Europeans to sit back and reflect and ask themselves why we why were we so
naive where did we go wrong and what can we do to make sure that we don’t make the same mistakes again in my article I
Europe’s 3 Options for Future
gave three specific suggestions for the Europeans one consider withdrawing from NATO to send a signal that you’re
autonomous and independent two work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia and three also consider working
out a grand strategic bargain with China so in a sense act in your own interest
and not in the interest of any other great power absolutely I I love that and I the article that you’re referring to
we’re going to put a link that down in the description it’s it was an article published in foreign policy entitled it’s time for Europe to do the
unthinkable and I you hit on each one of those three points I wanted to dig a little bit deeper into those though
because you say the first thing that you’re you know one one solution right you’ve given three practical Solutions
here for Europe and I love the way that you’ve prayed that you know they’ve made some mistakes they’ve got to really think think about their future because
they were very naive geopolitically so what would that look like if if Europe were to you know leave NATO and for
What if Europe Leaves NATO?
example your first suggestion what what would that actually look like well I I think it would send a very clear signal
that Europe is declaring his geopolitical independence and hence from
now on Europe will act as an autonomous strategic actor on the world stage
putting his own interests first you know and as I even as I even concede in the
article Europe may not necessarily have to pull out on N but but by just declaring that it is prepared to leave
NATO it is sending a signal that if you don’t take my interest into consideration why should I remain a
member of this club and the best way for Europe to be treated with respect is to declare that it is willing to leave NATO
because it’s it insistence on staying on in NATO even though the United States
has completely set aside European interest gives the impression that the Europeans
as I say in a somewhat cruel fashion gives the impression that the Europeans are licking the boots that are kicking
them and that’s very unwise extremely unwise in geopolitics because in geopolitics you got to be equally cruel
and canny and shrewd if you want to protect your interests and the best way to do that is to declare that if
European interests are not taken into consideration Europe is prepared to leave NATO right um Professor tell us
Should Europe Work with Russia?
about the second option I think you br it very interesting thing is actually what I like I like what you said earlier
is is that Europe knowing that they’re going to have to live next to Russia for the next 100 years or a thousand years
is actually you know working closer with Russia and and you know and I’d like you to expand upon that I mean we know
before the war you know for example most of the natural gas that was going into Germany obviously going through
nordstream pipeline that was a very very key element to Germany’s manufacturing prowess I’d like you to expand upon the
second point you know is is it possible for Europe to actually move closer to Russia after this conflict and after
what we’ve seen definitely see in in geopolitics you must always put all
options on the table including as I emphasize the unthinkable options and
you know people forget I mean this this is why I wish the Europeans would study southeast Asia for a bit longer you know
when the asan was set up in 1967 in the Cold War as a pro-american
organization uh it was his creation was denounced by both Moscow and Beijing in
1967 and you know what so one would assume that okay because of that asan will for for forever be caught in an
antagonistic relationship with his neighbor China right but you know the asan countries are extremely pragmatic
they said hey we have to live with China for the next 1,000 years and we got to make sure that we find ways or means of
getting along in such a way that on on issues that are important to us we stand up with China and yet on other issues
that are important to China we find ways and means of getting along with China so you know this is what pragmatism is all
about you you adapt and adjust and you negotiate a fair compromise and then you
have a good relationship for the long term and I’m astonished that the Europeans didn’t make any such effort at
all to understand Russian concerns and to work towards building up the trust of
the Russians uh with Europe and and you know this is this is an obvious thing
that the Europeans should have been doing because you know right now the United States is clearly the number one
power in the world no question whatsoever we we one of the biggest lessons of history is that no one power
Remains the number one power forever and 100 years from now United States may not
be the number one power may not be the number two power maybe the number three number number four power geopolitics is
going to change you must always keep keep your options open but one thing that doesn’t change uh are your
neighbors your neighbors never go away and a strong country like Russia a resilient country like Russia is not
going to disappear anytime soon so at the end of the day the Europeans have to live with Russia over the next 10,000
years and live with Russia in where the United States is no longer the great power so why not work out your own
autonomous arrangements with Russia instead of saying oh when it comes to Russia we’ll just loyally follow follow
whatever the United States does and that’s very unwise of the Europeans and I say this as a friend of the Europeans
I’m trying to say hey take care of your interest first yeah absolutely I I think both of these options are you know
Should Europe Work with China?
fantastic and very very insightful I’d like to talk about the third one because this one specifically involves China and
I think you bring up a very interesting point here you know we see a tremendous amount of migrants you know moving away
from Africa you know you know certainly going into Europe you know and why because they’re they’re searching for a
better life they’re more opportunity as we know Africa has a tremendous amount of potential but has not been as
developed as it probably should have been um but there’s an opportunity now you know potentially to move closer to
China and I think we saw very interesting you know the um German trade Minister had said that you know for
example if they get caught in a Terra war with Donald Trump in the United States you could potentially see Germany
combating that by actually shifting closer to China so I’d like you to talk about option three you know in the sense
that Europe can actually move closer to China that would mean well I think you know in in in one of the key points I
emphasized about geopolitics uh is that you got to be very cold and calculating
in trying to assess where your next big threat is going to come from and in the case of Europe the next big threat the
The Biggest Threat to Europe
next big threat is not going to come from Russian tanks at all it’s going to come from the demographic explosion in
Africa I think here’s one statistic that every European should know in the year 1950 Europe’s population uh was uh twice
the size of Africa now Europe’s Africa’s population is more than two and a half
times more than Europe by 2100 uh Africa’s population will probably be 10
times the population of the combined population of the European Union 10 times wow so if you have a lot of
Africans and unless you promote the growth and development of Africa there’ll be more and more Africans
trying to cross the Mediterranean into Europe so how do you prevent a major migrant ation from Africa to Europe I
mean assuming that you’re not going to start killing people in your borders so the only way to do that is to is to
support the economic development of Africa and support any country which invests in Africa because every piece of
Why Chinese Investment in Africa is Good
investment in Africa is a gift to Africa and a gift to Europe at the same time so
if the Europeans were smart they should they should welcome Chinese investment in Africa but what I find quite shocking
is that that leaders like Elizabeth vand delion and andelina bayback are
sacrificing European interests by criticizing Chinese investments in
Africa this goes against European interests why are you doing that actually China is doing European Union a
favor by investing in Africa and the European Union in fact should be working
with China to promote more Chinese investment in Africa rather trying rather than trying to oppose it because
the United States opposed es it so again this is another example of geopolitical
naivity on the part of the Europeans so this is this is something that I hope
that the Europeans will consider seriously and I understand that the Spanish government in addition to the German trade Minister the Spanish
government has also come out to say that it’s time for Europe to forge its own independent policy towards China yeah I
think that’s you know very big big shift that we’re seeing from Europe and I and I think they’re going to have to I think
The Truth About the Belt and Road Initiative
they’re going to have to shift closer towards China and I want to segue I think this kind of Segways perfectly into our next point which I want to talk
specifically about the Bel and Road initiative the belt and road brri is over 10 years old now we’ve seen
trillions of dollars invested from China over aund I believe it’s 150 countries
now around the world have signed up which is an incredible number if there’s 193 nations in the world I’d like to get
your thoughts on on the brri in general you know how has it been successful you know what does the future of that look
like and and your thoughts as a Singaporean as you’re looking at China’s investment not just in your your region
in your backyard but really all over the globe I mean they have a massive footprint now please share your thoughts
well I think you know you’re absolutely right uh it’s quite remarkable that over
150 countries have signed up uh to join projects uh affiliated with the belt and
Road initiative or BR and the reason why that’s remarkable is that the Biden Administration actually went door too to
every country in the world and said don’t join the Bri don’t join the Bri don’t join the brri and you know so
countries have to choose between get taking the advice of their Biden Administration or joining the Bri and
most countries in the world said the brri is going to give me an opportunity to improve the infrastructure of my
country improve the trade Links of my country why should I say no to it right just because the United States asked me
to say no to it so it was very unwise of the United States to try and persuade
countri not to join the brri the fact that 150 countries have joined showed that the American campaign against brri
has essentially failed now of course there are some countries that have refused to join the B and they have every right to do so I mean Japan hasn’t
joined India hasn’t joined Australia hasn’t joined but that’s fair enough they can do so but the the the fact of
the matter is that most countries in the world have decided to do so because it has led to concrete benefits so you take
for example Singapore’s neighbor Indonesia the IND as you know work with China to build a fast train between
Jakarta and band and the Indonesians are elated that they have this incredibly
fast train and Indonesia as you know is a in relative terms still a developing country it’s per capita income is much
lower than that of the United States but Indonesia now is a much faster train than United States does a train that I
think is called swo if I’m not mistaken okay and and and you know so
it’s remarkable so this this is not just about infrastructure because when you build a fast train and Country and
people in Indonesia say wow my country can have build a fast train guess what else my country can do it also enhances
the psychological confidence and also the psychological well-being of the population to see successful
infrastructure projects uh being built and completed uh in their countries and
in then therefore it was very unwise of the United States uh to oppose the brri
Should USA Join the BRI?
and I think the United States frankly should now try to do the opposite which is to welcome the brri investment in
United States because frankly much of United States infrastructure looks
pretty third world if you go to United States airports if you take a fast train in the United States and in fact if you
you see some of the bridges collapsing in the United States it would make sense for United States to work with China and
BR rather than to oppose the Bri now I know it’s not going to happen anytime soon but it’s is is an unthinkable
option that the United States should consider uh for the Future Would wouldn’t that be amazing United States
signing up to be on the BR I mean I completely agree with you as far as the infrastructure and you know how this
country is operating right now and I think I’d like to talk a little bit more about China because I know this is a
China’s Big Wins in 2025
country that you’ve studied tremendously and I think what’s you obviously traveled there many times I I’d like to
get your thoughts because in 2020 you authored a book called has China won and and I think 2025 has been a very
interesting year we you know we’ve seen these Tick Tock refugees you know mer millions of Americans you know being
frustrated with the US government wanting to ban Tik Tok and then go to xia hongu which is red note the Chinese
app and and having these amazing cultural exchanges millions of Americans millions of Chinese exchanging and
learning more about each other’s culture we then saw deep seek come out and completely revolutionize the future of
AI almost overnight it seemed like but really a breakthrough just last week we’ve seen you know China launch this
animated film that grossed a billion US dollars in the first 11 days in the box office I ask you five years later here
in 2025 you know has China won well uh as you know in my thesis in in my book
Has China Won?
called has China won that is a question mark there at the end of question great so the title is not China has won right
but as no question that uh a lot of the key uh points I made in the book still
remain valid even though the book was published in 2020 the first point I emphasize is that the United States has
launch a geopolitical contest against China and I said American Presidents may
come American president may go it makes no difference because this contest is driven by structural factors and
fortunately or unfortunately my predictions have come true you’ve had two very different presidents Trump and
Biden since the book was written but the fact this despite their differences the consistent American policy of trying to
stop the rise of China has continued and secondly I do have a make a key point
Why USA Should Never Bet Against China
that whatever the United States does it must never underestimate China because
China at the end of the day is still represents the world’s oldest continuous
civilization he’s been around for over 4,000 years there’s a reason for that
and in fact all the remarkable achievements that you point to whether it’s uh you know deep sake or China’s
manufacturing powers or right uh you know what it does in Battery Technology
EVs and so on and so forth China is a remarkable country and I think many Americans make a serious mistake of
underestimating China but a third and equally important I point I make in in
China Must Never Underestimate USA
the form of a fictional memo to president XI chin ping in chapter one of my book is that now that the
geopolitical contest between us and China has begun China of course must
believe that it’s going to win but whatever China does China must never underestimate the United States of
America because the United States of America is a remarkably successful society and has achieve wonders I mean
just to give you one statistic in the year 2000 uh the European Union and United States economies were about the
same size right now the European Union is only about 2/3 the size of United States so you know know the European
Union clearly as I’ve indicated in my earlier remarks has lost its way but the United States Still Remains a formidable
great power and it has a culture of innovation and Entrepreneurship that
keeps his economy very very very strong and that’s why I encourage the Chinese
to also treat the United States with respect just as I encourage the Americans to also treat China with
respect yeah that’s fantastic fantastic uh advice I completely agree with with that and I’d like to get your thoughts
Biggest Threat to Future of our World
uh being a Singaporean and being you know right in the middle of Asia and and you know we have these two great Powers
the US and and China um what is what is really the one you know geopolitical
conflict or situation that that you would fear the most for the future of our world is it potentially a us China
conflict happening somewhere in the Taiwan Strait for example is it you know the continuing problems that we see in
Europe is it something else that we’re not aware of what what is you know given your analysis and your in Singapore what
for for you what is that one big event that you’re looking for in the future well I think the the the most dangerous
issue in the world ban uh is a Taiwan issue no question whatsoever and in fact
I explained that of course in my book has China won Taiwan at the end of the day is a very hot potato politically
because it is the last living symbol of the century of humiliation that China
suffered from 1842 to 194 9 and I think it’s very important for every American
policy maker to study what this Century of humiliation means for the Chinese
mind and that’s why I came out with an edex edx course a short four lecture course on the century of humiliation so
that Americans could understand it better and you know as you know Taiwan was first separated from China when
China suffered a humiliating defeat at the hands of Japan in 1895 and from the
Chinese point of view until Taiwan is reunified by the century of humiliation has has not been closed and that’s why
you have to manage the taiwan’s issue very very delicately now this doesn’t mean that Taiwan should be returned to
Why Taiwan Status Quo is Important
China tomorrow overnight in fact the best way to preserve peace in the Taiwan
stat is to not change the status quo and as part of the status quo this is a very important point you have both countries
both of which claim that they’re representing China so Taiwan declares itself as a Republic of China and wiser
for Taiwan to continue to call itself the Republic of China and to continue to claim all of China because that
reaffirms the fact that Taiwan and China are one country corre but if Taiwan
declares independence then it may Force Tha China to declare war on Taiwan which
would be very very dangerous and at the same time if the even if the Taiwan did that they would find themselves
completely isolated in the world because while the passport of the Republic of China is now accepted in over 150
countries in the world any passport issued by Republic of Taiwan be will be recognized by barely a handful of
countries in the world so the Taiwan will be isolating themselves if they change the status quo so therefore the
the wisest thing to do in on the issue of Taiwan is to leave the status quo
alone as much as possible and not change it and this is where I thought from time
to time uh some of the things the Biden Administration did was a bit dangerous
like for examp example when Joe Biden gave an absolute security grantee to Taiwan and without any qualifications
and that was dangerous because the Strategic ambiguity prevented the Taiwanese from declaring independence
but once you give Taiwan an absolute security guarantee you’re also saying go ahead and declare independence and you
you’ll have my support and that’s very an unwise thing for the Biden Administration to have done cor right
thank you so much for that expert analysis that’s a very good point I think a lot of people haven’t thought
about is the fact that the Republic of China Taiwan right now they do claim all of China you know they do claiming
mainland China as well they’re one and it reaffirms that one China policy if they were to declare independence the
very few countries would be recognizing that that’s actually a very interesting point that I think a lot of people don’t
understand uh Professor mapani I have one final question you know on our YouTube channel here we we focus we bring in experts to talk about China and
What is One Thing You Want to Know About China?
we really try to help a lot more people understand China I think there there’s a lot of people in Western culture that
haven’t been exposed don’t have the knowledge I know that you’ve traveled to China extensively you’ve studied it for
many years what is one thing that you want the world to know about China that would be useful for them in the future I
think the one thing that everyone in the world especially every American should
understand is that China represents the world’s oldest continuous civilization
and and why has China survive for so long why has it demonstrated that it is
the most resilient civilization and the reason for that is that there is a lot
of wisdom in the Chinese body Politics on how to manage their Affairs
domestically and how to manage their affairs with their neighbors so clearly
I think it’s important for all of us who deal with China to deal with it on the
basis of respect and Americans especially should stop pouring scorn on China
Why America Should Treat China with Respect
should stop demonizing China should stop speaking of China in such insulting
terms and you know I wish the Americans would go around the world and listen to how other countries speak about China
and they’ll find that the vast majority of countries in the world treat China with a great deal of respect and I would
say that that’s one thing that Americans should learn to do to treat China with great respect even when they disagree
with it and to find ways and means of getting along with China because at the end of the day China has been around for
4,000 Years it’ll be around for another 4,000 years and Americans must remind
themselves that the United States of America has only been around 250 years it is still a child on world history and
a child in world history should show respect for their longest continuous civilization of humanity those are such
powerful words professor and I want to end there because that is just a perfect conclusion to our conversation today I
want to thank you so much for your time and you want to tell everybody how they can follow your work we’d love to continue to follow you I know we can
Conclusion
follow you on Twitter anywhere else or anything else that we could should be aware of but fortunately I have uh
active links in uh Twitter uh in Facebook uh in LinkedIn and I also have
a website called ww m.net and also a substack uh page so I guess you can uh
follow me but what I have found actually to my absolute astonishment is that
videos of all my interviews seem to be circulating widely without any
intervention on my part at all and I don’t understand how they’re circulating
or who’s circulating them but I’m nonetheless happy that for example my Harvard University lecture on happens
when China becomes number one has now been viewed over 4 million times and my book The Asian 21st century which is a
free Open Access book has been downloaded uh over 3.9 million times wow
and these this are this this is all this is happening without any effort on my part and so for all those of you who are
cting my work uh on your own I want to say a big thank you to all of you oh
fantastic well Professor you have such amazing insights you’re we just love to listen to you speak and to to hear your
Insight so thank you for sharing your message thank you for everything you do for our world and we’re going to make sure to put all those links down in the
description and everybody please make sure that you drop a comment down below and you know like the professor said let’s keep circulating this conversation
today to help get that message out thank you all for your continued support we’ll see you all in our next interview soon everyone thank you as always for your
incredible support I’m really grateful to invite guests like Professor mapani on the channel to help us all understand
the fast changing world of geopolitics if you enjoyed today’s discussion and made it to this point in the video
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Hausarzt, i.R., seit 1976 im der Umweltorganisation BUND, schon lange in der Umweltwerkstatt, seit 1983 in der ärztlichen Friedensorganisation IPPNW (www.ippnw.de und ippnw.org), seit 1995 im Friedenszentrum, seit 2000 in der Dachorganisation Friedensbündnis Braunschweig, und ich bin seit etwa 15 Jahren in der Linkspartei// Family doctor, retired, since 1976 in the environmental organization BUND, for a long time in the environmental workshop, since 1983 in the medical peace organization IPPNW (www.ippnw.de and ippnw.org), since 1995 in the peace center, since 2000 in the umbrella organization Friedensbündnis Braunschweig, and I am since about 15 years in the Left Party//
